In a report submitted to the National Assembly during its 9th session (15th legislature), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) stated that by the end of 2024, the gap between domestic SJC gold prices and global gold prices had been brought under control, shrinking from a peak discrepancy of around 25% to about 3–5 million VND per tael (approximately 5–7%).

However, global gold prices have broken record highs throughout early 2025. As of April 23, the price gap between domestic SJC gold and the global market (converted to local currency) had widened to 14.48 million VND per tael, or about 13.62%.

According to the SBV governor, there are two main reasons for this trend:

First, investor sentiment has been driven by expectations that global gold prices will continue to rise amid ongoing global economic instability. Second, the supply of SJC gold bars in the domestic market has not increased since the beginning of 2025. Since both the foreign exchange and gold markets have remained relatively stable, the central bank has seen no need to intervene.

Additionally, the SBV does not rule out the possibility that some businesses or individuals may be taking advantage of market fluctuations to speculate, inflate prices, and seek profit.

The SBV emphasized that it will work with relevant ministries and agencies - including the Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Industry and Trade, and Ministry of Finance - to strengthen inspections and oversight of gold trading enterprises, stores, and dealers, as well as other involved parties.

The goal is to promptly detect loopholes, inconsistencies, or violations, take strict enforcement actions, and propose necessary measures to higher authorities.

The governor also reported that the SBV’s continued orientation toward lowering interest rates to support businesses and citizens has helped drive lending rates downward.

As of April 10, the average lending rate on new bank loans had dropped to 6.34% per year, down 0.6 percentage points from the end of 2024.

By April 22, the exchange rate stood at around 25,896 VND/USD, up 1.64% from the end of 2024.

However, the lending rate environment is expected to face mounting pressure in the near future. While rates have dropped significantly, credit demand is forecast to rise sharply to meet the 2025 economic growth target.

At the same time, capital mobilization across the banking system may face stiff competition from other investment channels, such as real estate and the stock market. Despite a global trend toward lower interest rates, they remain elevated, and the international financial market remains volatile - especially after the U.S. announced its retaliatory tariff policy.

Furthermore, the exchange rate and foreign exchange market are likely to remain under considerable pressure from complex international factors.

Tuan Nguyen