Vietnam’s stock market closed the trading week of June 16–20 with positive signals, with the VN-Index maintaining its 3-year peak at 1,350 points. The overall uptrend remained solid, with a gain of nearly 260 points (24 percent increase) from the low on April 9 (1,090 points).

During the week, the VN-Index rose nearly 35 points (+ 2.6 percent) compared to the previous week. The average total trading value reached nearly $1 billion per session, reflecting strong cash flow and optimistic investor sentiment.

The cash flow flexibly rotated among industry groups, creating profit opportunities for both short- and long-term investors. Banking stocks remained the focal point, with focus on MBBank, Techcombank, and Sacombank which witnessed significant capitalization increases.

MBBank hit a record capitalization exceeding VND150 trillion, with MBB shares reaching an all-time high of VND25,800 per share, driven by expectations of a 23 percent profit growth in Q2/2025 compared to the same period last year, according to VCBS Securities.

Real estate and construction enterprises also surged, with major players like Vingroup and Novaland benefiting from policies on promoting public investment and prospects for real estate market recovery. Retail, technology, and steel sectors also contributed to the overall upward momentum.

The market’s positivity stemmed from easing concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although the Iran-Israel conflict still poses risks, its impact on Vietnam’s stock market is currently deemed short-term. Historically, the VN-Index has recovered quickly after similar geopolitical shocks.

Additionally, expectations of positive US-Vietnam trade negotiations bolstered investor confidence.

Domestic macroeconomic policies, targeting the GDP growth rate of 8 percent or more in 2025 and a high credit growth plan of 16 percent in the banking system, continue to be key drivers.

However, net selling pressure from foreign investors persisted, though it was insufficient to curb the general uptrend. Domestic investors played a pivotal role in the market, accounting for over 70 percent of market liquidity, ensuring stability even amid foreign net selling.

Cash flow trends and market outlook

Globally, cash flows continue to seek opportunities in emerging markets like Vietnam, supported by loose monetary policies from major central banks.

In Vietnam, ample banking system liquidity, evidenced by sharply declining overnight interbank interest rates, has created favorable conditions for capital to flow into financial investment channels, particularly the stock market. The government is accelerating public investment, with numerous large-scale infrastructure projects being rolled out, stimulating economic growth and supporting sectors like real estate, construction, and materials.

Positive business results and impressive restructuring efforts by listed companies have bolstered investor confidence, as seen in the cases of Novaland (NVL) and Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAG).

Hoang Anh Gia Lai significantly reduced its debt from a peak of over VND30 trillion to VND7 trillion, while recording positive profits. Similarly, Thanh Cong Textile (TCM) achieved a 1 percent revenue increase in May 2025 and a 9 percent rise in after-tax profit compared to the same period, completing 50 percent of its annual plan. Such recovery stories are spreading, fueling market momentum.

According to Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy at VnDirect Securities, the trading week of June 23–27 will be a “supply test” period at the 1,350-point peak. If the VN-Index holds firm, the short-term uptrend will solidify, targeting the 1,380–1,400-point range.

However, Hinh recommended that investors maintain a balanced portfolio, prioritizing highly liquid stocks less affected by geopolitical risks, such as retail, technology, and real estate.

For medium- and long-term prospects, Vietnam’s stock market faces significant opportunities. The VN-Index’s forward P/E valuation of 11.6 times is notably lower than the 5-year average, making the market attractive to foreign investors. The prospect of a market upgrading under the FTSE Russell framework could attract more foreign capital in Q3/2025.

The announcements about positive results from US-Vietnam trade negotiations, along with stable tariff policies, will support key export industries like textiles, seafood, and electronics.

The GDP growth target of 8 percent or more, combined with loose fiscal and monetary policies, provides a solid foundation for the stock market to rally.

However, risks remain, particularly from Middle East conflicts that could drive up oil prices, impacting production costs and corporate profit margins. Securities firms warn investors to maintain strict risk management and avoid chasing short-term rallies.

The smooth rotation of cash flow among industry groups is a positive signal, but caution is needed as the VN-Index is approaching strong resistance levels.

Manh Ha