Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has announced a historic achievement: the country’s coffee exports reached $5.5 billion in the first half of 2025 - hitting the full-year export target six months ahead of schedule.

This success comes despite a sharp decline in coffee prices both domestically and internationally. On June 30, domestic coffee beans were priced at $3.70 per kilogram (94,500 VND/kg), down from a peak of $5.30 per kilogram (135,400 VND/kg) earlier in the month, reaching their lowest level in a year.

Globally, from early May to the end of June, Robusta coffee prices dropped steeply on futures markets. July 2025 contracts fell by 30.9% (or $1,637), settling at $3,661 per ton, while September contracts dropped by 31.6% ($1,658), ending at $3,593 per ton.

Nonetheless, Vietnam’s coffee sector defied this downturn. The $5.5 billion earned from exports in the first six months already equals the target set for the entire year - an achievement the ministry hailed as a historic record.

Typically, the bulk of Vietnam’s coffee harvest occurs from December through April, meaning the second half of the year usually sees lower export volumes. Still, the ministry projects that coffee exports could reach $7.5 billion by year-end, marking a 36.9% increase over 2024.

The United States remains one of Vietnam’s key export markets, particularly for high-end specialty coffee, processed coffee, and instant coffee. However, some U.S. buyers are exploring alternative suppliers, increasing competitive pressure on Vietnamese exporters.

Yet, with global coffee supplies constrained by climate change and prices elevated amid strong demand, Vietnam’s coffee - especially its Robusta variety - remains well-positioned to maintain its foothold in the U.S. market.

In parallel, the European Union is seeking broader trade cooperation across Asia and the Middle East. As a result, Vietnamese coffee may pivot toward alternative markets such as China, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Over the long term, Northeast Asia - especially China, Japan, and South Korea - represents a strong and growing demand center for Vietnam’s Robusta coffee, helping mitigate risks tied to potential market loss in the U.S.

Tam An