The VN-Index ended the week with a gain of nearly 35 points (+2.6%) over the previous week, extending its overall rally of almost 260 points (+24%) since its April 9 low of 1,090 points. The average daily trading value reached nearly $1 billion USD, reflecting robust inflows and growing investor confidence.

Money flowed flexibly between sectors, offering opportunities for both short- and long-term investors. Banking stocks remained in focus, with notable gains from MBBank, Techcombank, and Sacombank. MBBank reached a historic market cap milestone of over 150 trillion VND ($5.9 billion USD), with its share price peaking at 25,800 VND/share amid forecasts of a 23% year-on-year profit increase in Q2 2025 (VCBS).

The real estate and construction sectors also surged, with Vingroup and Novaland benefiting from public investment policies and a recovering property market. Retail, technology, and steel stocks contributed further to the uptrend.

Reduced geopolitical concerns in the Middle East also supported the rally. While risks from the Iran-Israel conflict persist, their impact on Vietnam’s stock market has proven short-lived in similar past events.

Investor sentiment was further boosted by positive developments in US-Vietnam trade discussions.

Domestically, macroeconomic policies targeting 8%+ GDP growth and 16% credit expansion for 2025 continue to act as key drivers.

Despite persistent net selling from foreign investors, local investors have remained the market’s backbone, accounting for over 70% of liquidity and maintaining stability.

Liquidity and outlook suggest upward potential

Globally, investors are channeling capital into emerging markets like Vietnam, fueled by looser monetary policies across major central banks.

Vietnam’s banking system is highly liquid, evidenced by plunging overnight interbank rates, which is encouraging capital to flow into financial markets, especially equities. Public investment is also accelerating, with large-scale infrastructure projects boosting growth prospects for real estate, construction, and materials.

Positive earnings and impressive restructuring stories are reinforcing investor optimism. Notably, Novaland (NVL) and Hoang Anh Gia Lai (HAG) have seen significant improvements. HAG reduced its debt from over 30 trillion VND to just 7 trillion VND and returned to profitability. Similarly, Thanh Cong Textile (TCM) posted a 1% revenue and 9% profit increase in May 2025, meeting 50% of its annual target.

According to Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy at VnDirect Securities, the June 23–27 trading week will test supply pressure at the 1,350-point mark. If the VN-Index holds, short-term momentum could carry it toward the 1,380–1,400 range.

Hinh advises investors to maintain balanced portfolios, prioritizing liquid stocks and those less affected by geopolitical risks, such as retail, tech, and real estate.

In the medium- and long-term, Vietnam’s stock market shows strong promise. The VN-Index’s forward P/E ratio stands at 11.6x, well below its five-year average, making it attractive to foreign investors. Anticipated market reclassification by FTSE Russell in Q3 2025 could further boost capital inflows.

Positive US-Vietnam trade talks and a stable tariff environment support key export sectors like textiles, seafood, and electronics.

With a national GDP growth target of over 8% and continued fiscal and monetary easing, Vietnam’s stock market is positioned for a strong breakout.

However, risks remain - particularly from potential oil price spikes due to Middle East conflicts, which could squeeze corporate margins. Experts warn against speculative buying during short-term rallies.

Sector rotation remains a healthy sign, but investors should be cautious of potential corrections as the VN-Index approaches major resistance levels.

Thanks to abundant liquidity, supportive policies, and trade optimism, Vietnam’s stock market could soon break the 1,400-point barrier if current momentum continues.

Manh Ha