High retaliatory tariffs and a wave of new trade defense measures by the United States are placing mounting pressure on Vietnamese businesses, especially as anti-dumping and countervailing investigations become more aggressive. Accessing key export markets has never been more challenging.

Wide-ranging impacts across sectors

On June 11, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) officially launched concurrent anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into imports of decorative and hardwood plywood from Vietnam. Nearly 100 Vietnamese exporters could face anti-dumping duties ranging from 138.04% to 152.41%, though subsidy margins have not yet been disclosed.

Vietnam, China, and Indonesia are under simultaneous scrutiny. According to Dr. Kim Ngoc Quang, Chairman of Kim Hoang Co., Ltd., this is particularly concerning for Vietnam. “The targeted products mostly fall under HS codes 4412 and 9403, where Vietnam has a competitive edge, but origin traceability remains challenging under international regulations,” he noted.

The U.S. currently accounts for about 20% of Vietnam's total seafood export value. On June 7, 2025 (Vietnam time), the DOC announced preliminary results of the 19th administrative review (POR19) on anti-dumping duties for warm-water frozen shrimp imports. Notably, Soc Trang Seafood JSC was preliminarily assigned an unusually high duty of 35.29% - the highest level a Vietnamese shrimp exporter has ever faced in 19 years.

Although seven Vietnamese pangasius exporters were exempted from duties under POR20 announced on June 18, 2025, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) remains concerned. The possibility of retaliatory tariffs post-July 9, 2025, threatens the livelihoods of around four million workers and undermines exporters' profits and competitiveness.

Meanwhile, U.S. import duties on steel and aluminum from Vietnam doubled from 25% to 50% starting June 4, 2025. This policy shift is a significant barrier for Vietnamese exporters. At the same time, reduced tariffs on Chinese imports (from 145% to 30%) have spurred a surge of Chinese exports to the U.S., pushing shipping costs higher. For instance, shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast has jumped from $2,500 to $4,000.

Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, emphasized that these developments highlight the adverse impacts of retaliatory U.S. trade policies.

Proactive defense of national interest

Shrimp and pangasius are long-standing key exports from Vietnam but have repeatedly been targeted by U.S. trade measures. VASEP warns that continued high tariffs could erode Vietnam’s presence in its largest traditional seafood market. They urge the government to accelerate negotiations with U.S. authorities and conduct advocacy efforts in Congress and among U.S. trade groups to protect Vietnam’s interests.

Vietnamese businesses must also anticipate tariff risks and adapt production strategies accordingly to align with evolving global trade standards.

Hoa Phat Group, for instance, has strategically reduced steel exports to the U.S. to just 3% of its steel revenue and shifted focus to supplying domestic infrastructure projects. The company’s domestic sales rose to 72%, 73%, and 84% in 2023, 2024, and the first quarter of 2025, respectively.

On the regulatory side, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) continues to uphold transparency. Earlier this year, the MoIT issued Decision No. 460/QĐ-BCT to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on certain hot-rolled steel products from India and China.

Deputy Director of the Trade Remedies Authority Chu Thang Trung stated that this reflects Vietnam’s commitment to fair trade. The ministry will continue to conduct careful investigations and monitor key markets to provide timely support and policy recommendations for exporters.

Nhan Dan